Many investors are pleased with July's stock market rally....me, included. Personally, as of July 31, I doubled (on paper) my Ford Motor Company investment when its stock hit $8 a share.
Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services from a nation in a given year.
For example, Baby Boomers were responsible for a 78% share of GDP growth during the bubble years of 1995-2005. However today, Americans have abruptly switched from living beyond their means to saving more and working down the debts they incurred during the bubble years.
The Commerce Department's gross domestic product report today shows a contraction of about 1% for the second quarter. That marks a less severe decline than the first quarter's 5.5% figure, possibly prompting some to declare that an economic bottom has arrived.
But a 1% decline still would mark the first time GDP has contracted for four quarters in a row since at least 1947, when the Commerce Department began measuring GDP.
A Jobless Recovery is an oxymoron
Employers have been cutting roughly 500,000 jobs a month this year. Some maintain payrolls are a lagging indicator. But job losses in this recession have been much steeper than in the previous two. And weekly paychecks become much dearer when consumers can't or won't take on more debt.
When 79 million boomers--nearly a third of Americans--start spending less and saving more, you know it won't be pretty. According to consulting firm McKinsey, boomers' conversion to thrift could stifle the economy's hoped-for rebound and knock U.S. growth down from the 3.2% it has averaged since 1965 to 2.4% over the next 30 years.
Wages, excluding stimulus benefits, continue to slide, industrial production has fallen every month this year and capacity utilization is at a low of 68%. The elements that will drive a recovery--rising wages, consumer demand, production and sales--haven't appeared.
Despite the July stock market rally and investors' satisfaction with earnings that top low-ball estimates, sustainable profit growth might not arrive for some time.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, July 31, 2009
Be sure to visit the August Leadership Development Carnival hosted by Mary Jo Asmus